美預測2030年全球五大海軍 中國規模最大擁4艘航母
本帖最後由 iamhere123321 於 2016-6-29 04:44 AM 編輯消息來源：新浪網
俄羅斯衛星網26日刊文稱，美國媒体近日預測了2030年全球最强的五大海軍，包括美國、俄羅斯、英國、中國和印度。
該報道引用美國《國家利益》雜志網站的分析稱，預計到2030年，一國海軍最重要的艦艇是航母和戰略核潛艇——航母代表著海軍的全球戰略投送能力，而戰略核潛艇則反映了核武器庫的多樣化。按照這個標准，2030年全球海軍最强大的仍是美國。美國海軍將擁有至少3艘“福特”級超級航母，取代現役“俄亥俄”級的新型戰略核潛艇也將于2031年服役。同時還有至少3艘“朱姆沃爾特”級和34艘“阿里·伯克”級驅逐艦加入美國海軍，使其主力艦艇總規模維持在309艘。
俄羅斯則擁有至少由8艘“北風之神”級新型戰略核潛艇組成的水下核打擊力量，規模位居世界第二。同時俄羅斯還在研制十万噸級超級航母以及新型“領袖”級核動力驅逐艦，它們將成為美國同類艦艇的有力競爭者。
報道稱，“2030年英國將擁有該國歷史上規模最小但最致命的海軍”。按照英國公布的計划，屆時將擁有兩艘新型航母和4艘“繼承者”級戰略核潛艇，后者將于2028年開始服役。同時英國海軍仍將配備由6艘45型驅逐艦和8艘“全球戰斗艦”組成的水面主力艦隊。
2030年全球規模最大的海軍則是中國海軍。按照美國海軍的預測，中國將擁有99艘潛艇、4艘航母、102艘驅逐艦和護衛艦，26艘輕型護衛艦和巡邏艦，73艘兩棲艦艇和111艘導彈艇，總數多達415艘。
而隨著大量資金投入，印度海軍有望在2030年躋身世界五强。印度將擁有3艘航母和9艘驅逐艦，並將建造3艘戰略核潛艇。
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個人觀感：國家利益上這篇文章的原文看了看，應該是一種變相的中國威脅論吧，除了對美軍的預測，里面的一些關于中俄數字揣測的太離譜。99艘潛艇，難道中國不除役老舊的柴電潛艦？111艘導彈快艇？中共已經停止發展新型導彈快艇，老式的037會慢慢汰除，現在不到90艘的規模，今后只會越來越少，哪里來的111？還有以俄羅斯現在的國力能在2030前造出10万噸的核動力航母和核動力驅逐艦？令人懷疑。英國雖有航母和核子潛艦撐腰，但規模太小，排名中印之前也缺乏說服力。
...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div><div></div> 俄羅斯只要西方不停止制裁............它強軍無望.....................海軍隨著新技術與新戰術的運用,重質不重量.............關鍵在無人機或無人系統發展與衛星發展與數位全息系統投入,帶來的變革 本帖最後由 xeno-2007 於 2016-6-29 08:18 AM 編輯
路過看熱鬧，補上National Interest報導原文。
The 5 Most Powerful Navies of 2030
The most powerful navies in 2030 will be a reflection of the broader state of the world. Some countries are invested in preserving the current international order, and see naval power as a means to maintain it. Other emerging countries are building navies commensurate with their newfound sense of status, often with an eye towards challenging that order.
The eastward shift in naval power will continue in 2030, a product of both declining defense budgets in Europe and growing economies in Asia. While the most powerful navies of the Cold War were concentrated largely in Europe, by 2030 both China and India will be on the list, with Japan and South Korea as runners-up also fielding large, modern naval forces.
Ship-wise, there are two classes that will define the most powerful navies: aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines. Aircraft carriers reflect the need to maintain a global, or even regional, power-projection capability. Ballistic-missile submarines reflect a maturation and diversification of a country’s nuclear arsenal, with an eye toward maintaining a second-strike capability in case of surprise attack. More than any other type, those two will define naval power in the early-to-mid twenty-first century.
The United States
The United States, the dominant naval power worldwide in 1945, will continue to dominate the seas eighty-five years later. By 2030 the Navy will be halfway through its thirty-year shipbuilding plan and have built three Gerald R. Ford–class aircraft carriers to begin replacing existing Nimitz-class carriers. Amphibious ship numbers should be slightly higher than current numbers, and the first ship in class to replace the Ohio ballistic missile submarines should enter service in 2031.
In surface combatants, all three Zumwalt-class cruisers will be in service—assuming the program remains fully funded—and the Navy will have built thirty-three more Arleigh Burke–class destroyers. A next-generation version of the Littoral Combat Ship will enter production in 2030.
Under current plans the U.S. Navy should reach its three-hundred-ship goal between 2019 and 2034, but after that period the number of surface combatants begins to drop. These plans also assume a higher than average shipbuilding budget, while at the same time the service must compete with the budget demands of other services—particularly the Air Force—and domestic programs. While U.S. naval superiority isn’t ending any time soon, the period after 2030 will be a critical one.
The United Kingdom
The Royal Navy of 2030 will be paradoxically the smallest and yet most powerful in the history of the United Kingdom. A combination of two new aircraft carriers, restoring fixed-wing flight to navy after a forty-year hiatus, and a fleet of ballistic-missile submarines will keep a numerically inferior Royal Navy in the top five.
The Royal Navy’s surface fleet, currently at nineteen destroyers and frigates, will shrink even further to six Type 45 guided-missile destroyers and eight Global Combat Ship frigates. The number of nuclear-powered attack submarines will remain constant at seven.
The Royal Navy is responsible for the UK’s nuclear deterrent and currently operates four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, each equipped with sixteen launch tubes for Trident D-5 missiles. The Vanguard class is expected to be replaced with the Successor class starting in 2028.
The UK’s sea-based power projection capability will be in the form of the Queen Elizabeth–class of aircraft carriers. The two conventionally powered ships, Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales, will each displace sixty-five thousand tons fully loaded and capable of carrying up to fifty aircraft. Aircraft will include the F-35B Lightning II fighter and Merlin, Wildcat, Chinook and Apache helicopters. The two carriers will optionally double as amphibious transports capable of carrying up to nine hundred Royal Marines or troops of the Army’s Sixteenth Air Assault Brigade.
China
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of 2030 will continue to build on the ground broken by the PLAN of 2016. Currently, China has four major ship hulls it seems to be content with: the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, Type 054A frigate, Type 056 corvette and Type 071 amphibious transport. All four are mature designs in large-scale production that will form the bulk of the fleet in 2030.
By one prediction, by 2030 the PLAN will have ninety-nine submarines, four aircraft carriers, 102 destroyers and frigates, twenty-six corvettes, seventy-three amphibious ships and 111 missile craft, a whopping 415 ships in total, to approximately 309 in the U.S. Navy of 2030. This would put China in a solid position as the world’s largest navy by number of ships—though not by total ship tonnage
Could China really reach 415 ships? Such a total would probably require twice as many submarines to be produced annually, a boost in destroyer production to achieve a net gain as older designs age out, and a huge increase in amphibious ships. It would also require two more carriers than are currently in service or under construction. Reaching such a goal would require a substantial increase in the PLAN’s budget—at a time when the Chinese Communist Party is finally applying the brakes to defense-budget increases.
Other ships under construction will form China’s fleet in 2030 are the Type 055 destroyer and Type 001A aircraft carrier. A new ballistic-missile submarine to supplement and eventually replace the Type 094 Jin class is also likely. The 094 class is notoriously noisy underwater and not a particularly good place to put a fraction of China’s three hundred or so nuclear warheads.
India
The Indian Navy will be the second (or third, if you count Russia) Asian navy on this list. India has recently begun pouring enormous resources into its naval service, and as a result by 2030 could have one of the top five navies on the planet.
Barring unforeseen naval developments in other countries, by 2030 India will have the second largest carrier fleet in the world, with three flattops. If all goes according to plan, India should have three aircraft carriers: Vikramaditya, Vikrant and Vishal, together fielding a total of about 110–120 aircraft.
India will also have at least nine destroyers, including two guided missiles of the Kolkata class, three of the Delhi class, and four of the in-construction Visakhapatnam class. This is one less than what India has at present, and the number of hulls will have to increase if India is serious about protecting three aircraft carriers. Roughly two-thirds of the Indian Navy’s frigate fleet is modern enough to make it to 2030, particularly the Shivalik and Talwar classes, but India will have to increase the number of frigates overall—especially if Pakistan is serious about putting nuclear weapons on submarines.
India is in the process of standing up a sea-based leg of its nuclear triad, with the first ballistic missile submarine, Arihant, expected to be operational soon. Three Arihant subs are planned and an overall “boomer” fleet of six submarines is expected.
Russia
The combination of a downturn oil prices and Western sanctions from its annexation of the Crimea will put a crimp in Russia’s economic stride for the near future. After economic growth of up to six percent annually, the bear is in recession with no immediate end in sight. A plan to replace 90 percent of Russian military equipment, including ships and naval equipment, has stalled.
By 2030, Russia’s position on this list will be in large part due its ballistic missile submarine fleet. Eight Borei submarines, each carrying twenty Bulava missiles, will be in service, forming the second-largest ballistic-missile submarine fleet in the world.
The rest of the Russian Navy is slouching toward oblivion, with a dwindling number of large surface combatants, submarines and a single, decrepit aircraft carrier. Yet there’s still hope: before the money ran out Moscow had big plans for its navy, and if were to somehow find funding, a number of interesting projects could be pursued.
Project 23000E, or Shtorm, would be a nuclear-powered carrier 330 meters long and displacing one hundred thousand tons, making it the closest competitor to a Ford-class carrier. Nuclear-powered, the carrier will embark up to one hundred aircraft, including a navalized version of the PAK-FA fifth-generation fighter.
There’s also the gigantic Lider-class nuclear-powered destroyer. At 17,500 tons and two hundred meters long, the Lider class is more akin to a cruiser than a destroyer. Armament will consist of sixty antiship cruise missiles, 128 antiaircraft missiles, and sixteen antiship guided missiles. The first ship is scheduled to begin production in 2019, with twelve entering service by 2025—an ambitious shipbuilding schedule to say the least.
...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> 本帖最後由 xeno-2007 於 2016-6-29 08:35 AM 編輯
中國GDP他朝世界第一，擴軍是必然。
俄羅斯受產業結構所限，想要再興，看油價能否升上百美元，否則不只新核動力航空母艦不見，甚至連現有艦隊規模都維持不了。
英國到2030只怕剩下小小的英格蘭，不要妄想爭強好勝了。
印度就算怎樣多燒錢，也成不了大業。
如果法國和德國能齊心穩定歐盟，會有所作為。
美國要看下年是否由狂人特朗普來逆轉天下大勢。
安倍晉三想要大日本帝國重拾軍國主義光榮歲月，大家竟然忘了他。...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> 隨便吹牛一下而已
根本不用那麼的當真
因為這牽扯到經濟因素
沒錢可以做什麼阿<br><br><br><br><br><div></div> 阿共窮兵黷武耶
把錢全部投入軍備
完全不顧民生
人民連個茶葉蛋都吃不起
再多的航母有用嗎 英國已經脫歐...
2030經濟強國裡面還有沒有英國還很難說... 皇家海軍現在只有六艘頂球用級了，這要是再分裂了還剩下啥可真不好說了。兩艘航母中可能只留女王了，親王准備要當掉啊。 RNAVision 發表於 2016-6-29 08:43 PM static/image/common/back.gif
皇家海軍現在只有六艘頂球用級了，這要是再分裂了還剩下啥可真不好說了。兩艘航母中可能只留女王了，親王准 ...
英國一崩，就像蘇聯解體，烏克蘭把建造中的航空母艦當廢鐵賣掉，
肚中的親王必定出不了世，蘇格蘭能否把親王奪走再拋入熔爐煉金，還是會有財主(印度！)收養改姓？
我下注，女皇未到期(2020)出陣就保不住，單靠英格蘭是養不起航母遠征艦隊，能有分家剩下的戰艦守門口已心足了！
...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> 英國還是先搞定政治吧......
不是很看好印度和俄國，
反而是歐陸如果可以整合，倒是可以當作一支強大的海軍。<br><br><br><br><br><div></div> 還有15年吶，現在就說15年后的事情，感覺為時過早。
不過這篇稿子發表的時候作者沒料到英國會崩吧哈哈哈哈。 本帖最後由 muilow 於 2016-6-30 10:46 AM 編輯
匪兵乙 發表於 2016-6-29 05:37 PM static/image/common/back.gif
阿共窮兵黷武耶
把錢全部投入軍備
完全不顧民生
阿共的民生基建也是用來赫人的。
溪洛渡地下電站施工 (剛完工投產)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFiVlU-q5ls
溪洛渡水電站機電工程動畫
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1egAj24JMNg
溪洛渡水電站紀錄片
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jpd4dIEXsnU
...<div class='locked'><em>瀏覽完整內容，請先 <a href='member.php?mod=register'>註冊</a> 或 <a href='javascript:;' onclick="lsSubmit()">登入會員</a></em></div> muilow 發表於 2016-6-30 10:38 AM static/image/common/back.gif
阿共的民生基建也是用來赫人的。
溪洛渡地下電站施工 (剛完工投產)
這些水電站能吃嗎
你不知道水電站破壞環境嗎
台灣早就不做水電站了 國家利益根本不是專業的軍事雜誌,只是美國不知名的小網站,大概是收了中國錢
很喜歡吹捧中國,所以中國才會努力翻譯--- 中國雖然大但不適合用來戰爭的
就好像蘇聯不想同盟一樣的道理
多費了力氣幫忙顧這地幹呢??
讓自己又愛又恨的美地幫忙夾進矛盾的空間裡
時間久了骨子也軟了
就好辦事了
全世界都看得很清楚啊
<br><br><br><br><br><div></div>